Adilet holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.6% as the party winner in Kazakhstan’s August 23 Kurultai election due to its June 2026 merger with the former ruling Amanat party, creating a unified pro-presidential bloc under leader Aibek Dadebay. This consolidation follows the March constitutional referendum that established the new 145-seat unicameral legislature and replaced the prior bicameral system. Seven parties cleared participation, yet Adilet benefits from institutional continuity, broad organizational resources, and alignment with the administration’s reform agenda. Other listed parties remain fragmented with minimal implied probabilities. Late developments that could alter outcomes remain limited but might include shifts in turnout patterns or procedural rulings by the Central Election Commission in the final days before voting.