Anthropic's confidential SEC filing in June and subsequent roadshow preparations have positioned November 2026 as the clear frontrunner at 64.9% implied probability, driven by the company's decision to delay marketing until mid-October or early November. This shift allows inclusion of full third-quarter results amid surging revenue—annualized run rate exceeded $65 billion by July and is projected above $100 billion by year-end—supporting expectations for a roughly $2 trillion valuation and up to $100 billion raise. Recent Claude model updates, including Opus 5.5, and competition from OpenAI's own postponed plans further underscore the focus on demonstrating momentum before listing ahead of the U.S. midterms and Thanksgiving. Traders view these verified timeline adjustments and financial trajectory as the dominant catalysts, with later months reflecting residual scheduling uncertainty.