SpaceX's internal guidance of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026, combined with a demonstrated cadence of multiple missions per week from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, positions the 140-159 range as the market leader at 57.8% implied probability. Record booster reuse exceeding 35 flights per vehicle and rapid pad turnarounds sustain Falcon reliability near 99.8%, while Starship Flight 12 testing in May 2026 and planned V3 Starlink deployments introduce upside potential for the 160-179 band. Current pace through early June supports exceeding company baselines, though Starship orbital contributions remain uncertain pending further flight data. Upcoming manifest updates and range approvals will refine these trader-assessed odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में स्पेसएक्स कितने लॉन्च करेगा?
2026 में स्पेसएक्स कितने लॉन्च करेगा?
140-159 57.8%
160-179 28%
180-199 8.7%
200 या अधिक 5%
$303,473 वॉल्यूम
$303,473 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
100 से कम
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
4%
140-159
58%
160-179
28%
180-199
9%
200 या अधिक
5%
140-159 57.8%
160-179 28%
180-199 8.7%
200 या अधिक 5%
$303,473 वॉल्यूम
$303,473 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
100 से कम
$3,655 वॉल्यूम
1%
100-119
$2,338 वॉल्यूम
1%
120-139
$3,196 वॉल्यूम
4%
140-159
$44,702 वॉल्यूम
58%
160-179
$89,852 वॉल्यूम
28%
180-199
$58,655 वॉल्यूम
9%
200 या अधिक
$101,074 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX's internal guidance of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026, combined with a demonstrated cadence of multiple missions per week from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, positions the 140-159 range as the market leader at 57.8% implied probability. Record booster reuse exceeding 35 flights per vehicle and rapid pad turnarounds sustain Falcon reliability near 99.8%, while Starship Flight 12 testing in May 2026 and planned V3 Starlink deployments introduce upside potential for the 160-179 band. Current pace through early June supports exceeding company baselines, though Starship orbital contributions remain uncertain pending further flight data. Upcoming manifest updates and range approvals will refine these trader-assessed odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$303,473समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX's internal guidance of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026, combined with a demonstrated cadence of multiple missions per week from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, positions the 140-159 range as the market leader at 57.8% implied probability. Record booster reuse exceeding 35 flights per vehicle and rapid pad turnarounds sustain Falcon reliability near 99.8%, while Starship Flight 12 testing in May 2026 and planned V3 Starlink deployments introduce upside potential for the 160-179 band. Current pace through early June supports exceeding company baselines, though Starship orbital contributions remain uncertain pending further flight data. Upcoming manifest updates and range approvals will refine these trader-assessed odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
वॉल्यूम
$303,473समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's internal guidance of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026, combined with a demonstrated cadence of multiple missions per week from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, positions the 140-159 range as the market leader at 57.8% implied probability. Record booster reuse exceeding 35 flights per vehicle and rapid pad turnarounds sustain Falcon reliability near 99.8%, while Starship Flight 12 testing in May 2026 and planned V3 Starlink deployments introduce upside potential for the 160-179 band. Current pace through early June supports exceeding company baselines, though Starship orbital contributions remain uncertain pending further flight data. Upcoming manifest updates and range approvals will refine these trader-assessed odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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