**Escalating U.S.-Iran naval clashes and targeted strikes on tankers have driven commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels throughout early September 2026, producing a week-of-September-7 total that aligns squarely with the 35-39 bin.** Kpler and IMF PortWatch satellite-derived counts show averages of roughly three to six commodity vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 85, reflecting widespread AIS deactivation, war-risk premiums running 15 times peacetime levels, and roughly 1,100 vessels idled or diverted. This market-implied outcome, backed by real-capital trader consensus, captures the persistent disruption from IRGC retaliation and U.S. enforcement actions that began intensifying in late August. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable surge in coordinated “dark” transits could still shift the final tally, though current data releases through mid-September leave little room for material revision.