**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.