Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया10 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
10 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
200-219 100.0%
<180 <1%
180-199 <1%
220+ <1%
$16,038 वॉल्यूम
$16,038 वॉल्यूम
16 अग, 2026
<180
नहीं
180-199
नहीं
200-219
हाँ
220+
नहीं
200-219 100.0%
<180 <1%
180-199 <1%
220+ <1%
$16,038 वॉल्यूम
$16,038 वॉल्यूम
16 अग, 2026
<180
$7,062 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
180-199
$2,534 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
200-219
$2,064 वॉल्यूम
हाँ
220+
$4,379 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$16,038समाप्ति तिथि
16 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: नहीं
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: नहीं
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$16,038समाप्ति तिथि
16 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: नहीं
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: नहीं
Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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