The October 27, 2026, Knesset election follows the 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term, with polls showing Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc projected at 49–53 seats and the opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, at 53–57 seats amid Arab lists holding the balance. Neither side reaches the 61-seat threshold for a majority, prompting post-election coalition negotiations under the president’s mandate process. Traders assign 62% probability to one election sufficing because surplus-vote agreements and bloc positioning favor eventual government formation after standard bargaining, consistent with patterns after non-crisis elections. Recent candidate-list filings and stable polling averages reinforce expectations that additional snap elections remain unlikely absent major negotiation failure.