**California Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 House seats following 2024 gains.** The dominant driver of trader expectations for 47 or 48 Democratic seats in the November 3, 2026, election is the new congressional map enacted via Proposition 50, approved by voters in November 2025. This mid-decade redraw, designed to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, is projected to deliver a net Democratic gain of three to five seats by shifting boundaries in targeted Republican-held districts, particularly in the Central Valley, Sacramento suburbs, and San Diego area. June 2026 primaries clarified several matchups, including competitive contests against incumbents like David Valadao and an open seat vacated by Darrell Issa, while solidifying Democratic advantages in others. A midterm environment with national polling favoring the opposition party adds modest upside reflected in the small 49+ probability, though a handful of districts retain uncertainty that keeps 47 and 48 as the clear consensus outcomes among traders.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया48 66%
47 23%
49+ 4.7%
46 4.4%
$21,916 वॉल्यूम
$21,916 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
43 से कम
<1%
43
<1%
44
2%
45
2%
46
4%
47
23%
48
66%
49+
5%
48 66%
47 23%
49+ 4.7%
46 4.4%
$21,916 वॉल्यूम
$21,916 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
43 से कम
$565 वॉल्यूम
<1%
43
$649 वॉल्यूम
<1%
44
$801 वॉल्यूम
2%
45
$863 वॉल्यूम
2%
46
$1,306 वॉल्यूम
4%
47
$5,331 वॉल्यूम
23%
48
$11,586 वॉल्यूम
66%
49+
$815 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**California Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 House seats following 2024 gains.** The dominant driver of trader expectations for 47 or 48 Democratic seats in the November 3, 2026, election is the new congressional map enacted via Proposition 50, approved by voters in November 2025. This mid-decade redraw, designed to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, is projected to deliver a net Democratic gain of three to five seats by shifting boundaries in targeted Republican-held districts, particularly in the Central Valley, Sacramento suburbs, and San Diego area.
June 2026 primaries clarified several matchups, including competitive contests against incumbents like David Valadao and an open seat vacated by Darrell Issa, while solidifying Democratic advantages in others. A midterm environment with national polling favoring the opposition party adds modest upside reflected in the small 49+ probability, though a handful of districts retain uncertainty that keeps 47 and 48 as the clear consensus outcomes among traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$21,916समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**California Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 House seats following 2024 gains.** The dominant driver of trader expectations for 47 or 48 Democratic seats in the November 3, 2026, election is the new congressional map enacted via Proposition 50, approved by voters in November 2025. This mid-decade redraw, designed to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, is projected to deliver a net Democratic gain of three to five seats by shifting boundaries in targeted Republican-held districts, particularly in the Central Valley, Sacramento suburbs, and San Diego area.
June 2026 primaries clarified several matchups, including competitive contests against incumbents like David Valadao and an open seat vacated by Darrell Issa, while solidifying Democratic advantages in others. A midterm environment with national polling favoring the opposition party adds modest upside reflected in the small 49+ probability, though a handful of districts retain uncertainty that keeps 47 and 48 as the clear consensus outcomes among traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$21,916समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**California Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 House seats following 2024 gains.** The dominant driver of trader expectations for 47 or 48 Democratic seats in the November 3, 2026, election is the new congressional map enacted via Proposition 50, approved by voters in November 2025. This mid-decade redraw, designed to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, is projected to deliver a net Democratic gain of three to five seats by shifting boundaries in targeted Republican-held districts, particularly in the Central Valley, Sacramento suburbs, and San Diego area. June 2026 primaries clarified several matchups, including competitive contests against incumbents like David Valadao and an open seat vacated by Darrell Issa, while solidifying Democratic advantages in others. A midterm environment with national polling favoring the opposition party adds modest upside reflected in the small 49+ probability, though a handful of districts retain uncertainty that keeps 47 and 48 as the clear consensus outcomes among traders.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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