US labor market resilience anchors trader sentiment for 2026 peak unemployment, with March nonfarm payrolls expanding 178,000—surpassing forecasts after February's contraction—and the rate dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, underscoring low layoffs amid steady hiring in health care and construction. Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections median holds Q4 2026 unemployment at 4.4%, aligning with professional forecasts around 4.5%, as cooling inflation supports a soft landing. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus on modest rises, but watch April jobs report (May 2) and May FOMC for labor data revisions or policy pivots that could elevate peak risks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$361,889 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2026
5.0%
45%
5.5%
29%
6.0%
18%
7.0%
14%
10.0%
4%
$361,889 वॉल्यूम
5.0%
$90,872 वॉल्यूम
45%
5.5%
$180,591 वॉल्यूम
29%
6.0%
$50,207 वॉल्यूम
18%
7.0%
$17,544 वॉल्यूम
14%
10.0%
$22,674 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US labor market resilience anchors trader sentiment for 2026 peak unemployment, with March nonfarm payrolls expanding 178,000—surpassing forecasts after February's contraction—and the rate dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, underscoring low layoffs amid steady hiring in health care and construction. Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections median holds Q4 2026 unemployment at 4.4%, aligning with professional forecasts around 4.5%, as cooling inflation supports a soft landing. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus on modest rises, but watch April jobs report (May 2) and May FOMC for labor data revisions or policy pivots that could elevate peak risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$361,889समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US labor market resilience anchors trader sentiment for 2026 peak unemployment, with March nonfarm payrolls expanding 178,000—surpassing forecasts after February's contraction—and the rate dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, underscoring low layoffs amid steady hiring in health care and construction. Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections median holds Q4 2026 unemployment at 4.4%, aligning with professional forecasts around 4.5%, as cooling inflation supports a soft landing. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus on modest rises, but watch April jobs report (May 2) and May FOMC for labor data revisions or policy pivots that could elevate peak risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
वॉल्यूम
$361,889समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US labor market resilience anchors trader sentiment for 2026 peak unemployment, with March nonfarm payrolls expanding 178,000—surpassing forecasts after February's contraction—and the rate dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, underscoring low layoffs amid steady hiring in health care and construction. Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections median holds Q4 2026 unemployment at 4.4%, aligning with professional forecasts around 4.5%, as cooling inflation supports a soft landing. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus on modest rises, but watch April jobs report (May 2) and May FOMC for labor data revisions or policy pivots that could elevate peak risks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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