Recent Yemeni government counteroffensives backed by Saudi strikes have retaken key Red Sea coastal positions including Mokha, eroding Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches and reducing leverage for tanker interdictions despite earlier September territorial gains. This dynamic, alongside the absence of confirmed oil tanker seizures since mid-2026 attacks on vessels like the Encelia, underpins low market-implied odds for near-term resolution. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and Brent crude holding above $105 per barrel reflect ongoing shipping disruptions and Saudi export rerouting risks, while broader Iran-related closures of the Strait of Hormuz amplify volatility. Continued ground fighting and potential Houthi missile strikes on Aramco facilities remain key swing factors into late October.