Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York retrial, declared May 15 after jurors deadlocked on the remaining rape charge, combined with his ongoing appeal of the 2022 California conviction and 16-year sentence, has driven trader consensus toward no additional prison time. At 74 and reporting ongoing health issues while held at Rikers, Weinstein faces legal uncertainty that markets interpret as likely to yield concurrent sentencing, plea resolutions, or successful appeals rather than stacked terms exceeding current incarceration. Historical patterns of overturned #MeToo-era convictions and the high bar for retrials reinforce this implied probability, though any California appeal denial or new charges could still shift momentum before final resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHarvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 80%1%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict, leading to a mistrial and leaving the New York rape charge unresolved. This outcome increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" option due to ongoing uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time surges to 84%54%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome strongly increased the market's confidence in "No Prison Time" as the retrial did not conclude with a prison sentence.
Judge Farber postpones verdict in Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time drops to 84%9%
Following the closing arguments, Judge Farber announced a delayed verdict, keeping the outcome uncertain and causing a brief drop in the “No Prison Time” price before the market rebounded later in May.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 81%43%
After three days of deliberations, the jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This was the second consecutive mistrial on this charge, leaving the case unresolved and causing the market to strongly favor the 'No Prison Time' outcome due to the lack of sentencing by the analysis end date.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time dips to 79%2%
The jury deadlocked again on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and reinforcing market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' outcome for this retrial.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments urging jury to convict Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 89%19%
Prosecutors emphasized the power dynamics and strength of accusers, urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, which temporarily affected market prices but did not decisively shift outcome probabilities.
Judge Declares Mistrial in Harvey Weinstein's Third Rape Trial After Jury Deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 80%1%
Justice Curtis Farber declared a mistrial after the jury reported they were hopelessly deadlocked, leaving the case unresolved and pushing odds heavily toward 'No Prison Time' by the July deadline.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing accountability, reinforcing the seriousness of charges and affecting market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but acquitted on another in New York retrial
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with no verdict on the Jessica Mann rape charge, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Jury Declared Mistrial After Deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%72%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and significantly increasing market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to uncertainty about further sentencing.
Jury Deliberations Begin in Harvey Weinstein's Third Rape Trial
No Prison Time surges to 79%51%
After a monthlong trial, the jury began deliberating on the single count of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
No Prison Time surges to 84%54%
Defense attorneys urged the jury to acquit Weinstein, arguing the accuser fabricated the allegations, signaling a strong defense push that influenced market expectations toward lower prison time probabilities.
Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
Defense closing arguments emphasized the lack of proof for non-consensual sex, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Closing arguments began with Weinstein's defense urging acquittal, emphasizing the complexity of the relationship with the accuser. This led to increased market uncertainty and a temporary dip in the no-prison-time probability.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
Defense attorneys urged jurors to acquit Weinstein, arguing the allegations were false, marking a critical moment in the trial that affected market expectations about sentencing.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal as retrial nears close
No Prison Time surges to 93%68%
Weinstein’s defense made a high‑profile closing‑argument appeal for acquittal, intensifying media coverage and pushing the market’s “No Prison Time” price sharply higher as a conviction seemed less likely.
Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Retrial Closing Arguments
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the power dynamics and urging the jury to convict Weinstein, while defense argued accusers were motivated by money and fame, intensifying market speculation on sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Opens with Opening Statements
10-20 years drops to 13%13%
The third Manhattan sex-crimes trial officially opened, focusing on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens in New York for third time
The third retrial began with prosecutors emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and defense focusing on consent and regret. This event renewed market attention on the trial's progress and potential outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein’s Third New York Rape Retrial Opens with Opening Statements
Opening statements in the third retrial emphasized the power dynamics and consent issues, setting the tone for the trial and influencing market sentiment on the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
ABC reported the scheduling of a new retrial for the remaining third‑degree rape charge, reviving the possibility of a lengthy prison sentence and shifting market interest away from “No Prison Time.”
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial begins with jury selection
No Prison Time surges to 25%19%
Jury selection started for Weinstein's third retrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. The trial was streamlined to focus on a single charge and accuser. This event renewed market attention and caused some price shifts reflecting the uncertainty of the outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Begins with Jury Selection
Jury selection started for Weinstein's third New York rape retrial focusing on the 2013 rape allegation by Jessica Mann. This retrial was a continuation of the unresolved legal process, impacting market sentiment with ongoing uncertainty about conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein to face third New York retrial on rape charge
A new retrial was scheduled focusing on a single charge involving Jessica Mann, renewing market attention and speculation on the potential sentence outcome.
Harvey Weinstein Faces Third New York Rape Trial on Jessica Mann Charge
Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York trial focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and impacting market expectations about the trial's outcome.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
Announcement of the upcoming retrial focusing on a single rape charge with jury selection starting soon, renewing market attention and affecting price movements.
Harvey Weinstein faces third New York rape retrial focusing on Jessica Mann charge
No Prison Time drops to 28%10%
A new retrial was scheduled focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with jury selection beginning. This renewed trial phase caused market fluctuations as the case's outcome remained uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with High-Profile Defense Attorneys Ahead of Third Trial
<5 years surges to 56%53%
Weinstein shook up his legal representation by hiring Jacob Kaplan and Marc Agnifilo, known for representing high-profile clients, to defend him in his upcoming third New York rape trial.
Judge Denies Harvey Weinstein's Motion for New Trial on Miriam Haley Conviction
No Prison Time surges to 25%18%
Judge Curtis Farber rejected Weinstein's bid to set aside his June 2025 conviction, solidifying the conviction and paving the way for a retrial on the deadlocked rape charge.
Prosecutors say they will review next steps after Weinstein‑mistrial
No Prison Time plunges to 9%32%
A New York appellate decision upheld the mistrial and announced that prosecutors would consider a fourth trial, reviving speculation of a future sentence and causing the market’s “No Prison Time” price to dip.
Jury deadlocks in Weinstein retrial on rape charge, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 5%2%
The jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and increasing uncertainty about a conviction in this retrial, impacting market prices toward 'No Prison Time'.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 39%24%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This outcome increased uncertainty about Weinstein's final sentence, pushing market probabilities toward 'No Prison Time'.
Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about a prison sentence from this retrial, pushing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Judge Declares Mistrial on Jessica Mann Rape Charge After Jury Foreman Reports Intimidation
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
The judge declared a mistrial on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann after the jury foreman refused to continue, alleging bullying by other jurors.
Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Jessica Mann Charge
No Prison Time plunges to 25%25%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market expectations for "No Prison Time" from the New York retrial due to unresolved charges and ongoing legal uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge
5-10 years jumps to 15%8%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to mixed market reactions with some increase in conviction probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial; Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
5-10 years plunges to 15%35%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict affected market probabilities, increasing chances of some prison time but uncertainty remained.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but mistrial declared on rape charge in New York retrial
No Prison Time dips to 4%3%
In the 2025 retrial, Weinstein was convicted of forcing oral sex on Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This mixed verdict caused market uncertainty and volatility, with some increase in probabilities for moderate prison terms but also for no prison time on the unresolved charge.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Criminal Sexual Act in New York Retrial Mixed Verdict
10-20 years drops to 26%7%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty of a criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, while deadlocking on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexually Abusing Miriam Haley but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 41%27%
Weinstein was found guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley, but the jury deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and a mistrial on that count.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
5-10 years jumps to 13%11%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola, with no verdict reached on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict caused market shifts reflecting mixed expectations for prison time.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team Ahead of Retrial
Weinstein changed his legal team, hiring new attorneys including those associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, which could affect trial strategy and market perceptions of his defense strength.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, which influenced market perceptions of trial outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial ends in a mistrial
No Prison Time drops to 7%7%
Weinstein appeared in court for jury deliberations, but the jury dead‑locked on the third‑degree rape charge, leading to a mistrial. The lack of a conviction drove the market sharply toward “No Prison Time.”
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
<5 years dips to 6%1%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge and the jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached. This change influenced market perceptions of his defense strength and trial outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, coming forward. This renewed legal challenge increased uncertainty about Weinstein's potential prison sentence, initially lowering the market's confidence in 'No Prison Time'.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser testifying, renewing focus on Weinstein's alleged sexual crimes. This event marked the formal restart of the legal process after his 2020 conviction was overturned, impacting market expectations about potential sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%
Weinstein’s New York retrial opened with opening statements, marking the first hearing since his 2020 conviction was overturned. The start of the trial created uncertainty about a possible sentence, pushing the market toward the “No Prison Time” outcome.
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