France's minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces no-confidence motions from both the hard-left France Unbowed and National Rally blocs, amid disputes over the delayed 2026 budget and rising fuel prices. President Macron has signaled willingness to dissolve the National Assembly if the government falls, which would trigger a snap legislative election, yet constitutional rules and the approach of the April-May 2027 presidential contest limit incentives for an immediate call. Recent polling shows far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left figure Jean-Luc Mélenchon dominating first-round scenarios, reflecting center fragmentation after Macron's term. Trader consensus prices a low probability of dissolution by year-end, citing the risks of further instability before the presidential vote and the recent left primary victory by Raphaël Glucksmann. Upcoming parliamentary votes and any renewed protests could still shift positioning.