Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with the July FOMC's 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, underpin trader consensus favoring no change in October at 71.5% implied probability. Three dissents calling for a 25-basis-point hike signal growing hawkish pressure amid energy-driven price pressures and above-target readings. This has shifted market-implied paths away from cuts toward potential tightening later in 2026, contrasting earlier easing expectations. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअक्टूबर में फेड का फ़ैसला?
अक्टूबर में फेड का फ़ैसला?
कोई बदलाव नहीं 72%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 24%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट की कमी 4.3%
50+ बीपीएस कटौती 1.6%
$643,891 वॉल्यूम
$643,891 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बीपीएस कटौती
2%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट की कमी
4%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
72%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
24%
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स वृद्धि
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 72%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 24%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट की कमी 4.3%
50+ बीपीएस कटौती 1.6%
$643,891 वॉल्यूम
$643,891 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बीपीएस कटौती
$125,593 वॉल्यूम
2%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट की कमी
$187,890 वॉल्यूम
4%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$139,170 वॉल्यूम
72%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$134,344 वॉल्यूम
24%
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स वृद्धि
$56,894 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with the July FOMC's 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, underpin trader consensus favoring no change in October at 71.5% implied probability. Three dissents calling for a 25-basis-point hike signal growing hawkish pressure amid energy-driven price pressures and above-target readings. This has shifted market-implied paths away from cuts toward potential tightening later in 2026, contrasting earlier easing expectations. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$643,891समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with the July FOMC's 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, underpin trader consensus favoring no change in October at 71.5% implied probability. Three dissents calling for a 25-basis-point hike signal growing hawkish pressure amid energy-driven price pressures and above-target readings. This has shifted market-implied paths away from cuts toward potential tightening later in 2026, contrasting earlier easing expectations. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$643,891समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with the July FOMC's 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, underpin trader consensus favoring no change in October at 71.5% implied probability. Three dissents calling for a 25-basis-point hike signal growing hawkish pressure amid energy-driven price pressures and above-target readings. This has shifted market-implied paths away from cuts toward potential tightening later in 2026, contrasting earlier easing expectations. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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