**Hawkish ECB policy amid persistent inflation pressures above the 2% target is anchoring trader consensus against any 2026 rate cut.** The deposit facility rate stands at 2.50% following 25-basis-point hikes in June and September 2026, driven by energy price surges from Middle East conflict that lifted staff projections to 3.0% headline inflation for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027. Economists overwhelmingly expect a further December hike, with limited evidence of second-round effects yet but risks skewed upward. Upcoming October and December Governing Council meetings, alongside fresh inflation and growth data, will shape the path, while resilient euro-area growth supports a data-dependent tightening bias. Tail risks include rapid energy price normalization or sharper growth slowdown that could prompt an earlier pivot, though current market-implied odds reflect limited scope for such outcomes.