Persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven euro area headline inflation back above 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and widely price in another increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. With core inflation also firm and limited evidence of second-round effects so far, trader consensus at 95% against any 2026 rate cut reflects expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated through year-end and into 2027. Recent labor market resilience and upward revisions to inflation forecasts reinforce this hawkish tilt. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
5% संभावना
$31,968 वॉल्यूम
$31,968 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
5% संभावना
$31,968 वॉल्यूम
$31,968 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven euro area headline inflation back above 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and widely price in another increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. With core inflation also firm and limited evidence of second-round effects so far, trader consensus at 95% against any 2026 rate cut reflects expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated through year-end and into 2027. Recent labor market resilience and upward revisions to inflation forecasts reinforce this hawkish tilt. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,968समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven euro area headline inflation back above 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and widely price in another increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. With core inflation also firm and limited evidence of second-round effects so far, trader consensus at 95% against any 2026 rate cut reflects expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated through year-end and into 2027. Recent labor market resilience and upward revisions to inflation forecasts reinforce this hawkish tilt. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$31,968समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven euro area headline inflation back above 3% in 2026, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and widely price in another increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. With core inflation also firm and limited evidence of second-round effects so far, trader consensus at 95% against any 2026 rate cut reflects expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated through year-end and into 2027. Recent labor market resilience and upward revisions to inflation forecasts reinforce this hawkish tilt. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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