Christine Lagarde’s eight-year term as ECB president runs until October 2027, and traders assign a 72.5% probability she remains in post through 2026. Speculation about an early exit surfaced in February 2026 after reports she might resign to let French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz influence successor selection ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election. In July interviews, Lagarde described an early departure as “possible” to engage in European policy debates but stressed she would stay through year-end amid economic turbulence and committed to price stability. Subsequent statements and the absence of formal resignation signals or accelerated EU appointment talks have reinforced the view that any transition is more likely in 2027. No scheduled events or political developments in the near term point to a 2026 vacancy.