China's most recent publicized long-range ballistic missile test occurred on July 6, 2026, when the PLA Navy launched a submarine-based missile carrying a dummy warhead from the South China Sea into the Pacific, the first such SLBM demonstration into international waters and the first major Pacific test in nearly two years. Beijing described the event as routine annual training and stated that relevant countries received advance notice. In the weeks since, international criticism—including a joint statement at the Conference on Disarmament—has focused on notification practices without triggering follow-on launches or visible escalation. No additional ballistic missile tests or operational launches have been reported through mid-August, consistent with China's historically low frequency of publicized strategic missile activity compared with other nuclear states. Traders therefore assign high probability to no further launches before year-end absent new diplomatic or military catalysts.