Persistent inflation at 6.29% year-over-year in September, more than double the Banco de la República’s 3% target, combined with elevated analyst expectations around 6.8% for year-end 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the October 30 decision. The central bank’s surprise 25-basis-point hike to 12.25% on September 30 in a 4-2-1 split vote, followed by Co-Director Villamizar’s October 13 comments favoring an extended restrictive stance or further increases, has elevated the implied probability of no change to 67% while assigning 24% to another 25-basis-point rise. Services and food components remain sticky amid El Niño risks and robust demand, though weaker growth forecasts from the IMF at 2.2% introduce some counterbalancing caution ahead of the meeting.