Ken Calvert holds the lead in trader pricing for California's 40th congressional district after redistricting placed two Republican incumbents in the same seat. The June 2026 top-two primary results positioned Calvert well ahead of Young Kim, with Calvert capturing roughly 35 percent to Kim's 21 percent as Democratic candidates split the remaining vote. This outcome reflects Calvert's stronger fundraising, broader name recognition across the newly drawn Orange County and Riverside County portions of the district, and alignment with conservative primary voters. The general election matchup between the two Republicans has produced no major subsequent developments that have shifted the implied probability, leaving room for late-cycle factors such as turnout patterns or endorsements to influence the November result.