**The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, produced an initial certified seat total of 158 in the Abgeordnetenhaus after overhang and leveling mandates were calculated under the mixed-member proportional system with a 5% threshold.** A subsequent recount in the Spandau 1 constituency corrected a reporting error, shifting one direct mandate from the CDU to the AfD and eliminating four leveling seats (two for Die Linke, one each for the SPD and Greens). This reduced the final chamber size to 153. Current trader pricing reflects this confirmed outcome, with the 153–157 range capturing the bulk of probability as the most recent official adjustment. The result aligns with the statutory minimum of 130 seats plus the net effect of constituency wins exceeding list entitlements across Berlin’s twelve districts. No further recounts or legal challenges altering the total have emerged in the days since the correction.