The Bank of Russia's September 11 decision occurs against a backdrop of inflation holding steady at 6% in July amid fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions, prompting the central bank to revise its 2026 inflation outlook upward to 6–7% and trim GDP growth projections to 0–1%. After the July cut of 25 basis points to 14%, policymakers signaled caution over one-off price pressures, expansionary fiscal policy, and the need for sustained disinflation before further easing. Trader consensus favoring no change at 65% reflects these inflation risks and the bank's emphasis on underlying measures near 4–5%, while a modest decrease at 36% prices in potential symbolic easing if data improves or amid external calls for lower borrowing costs; an increase remains remote given the recent cutting cycle.