Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting because the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 18 decision, leaving limited room for immediate follow-through absent fresh data surprises. Recent BOJ board comments, including warnings that underlying inflation is approaching 2% while financial conditions remain accommodative, reinforce a gradual, data-dependent path rather than back-to-back moves. Persistent yen weakness, energy-price pressures from Middle East developments, and above-target CPI readings support further normalization, yet growth forecasts remain moderate and policymakers have signaled they will assess the impact of the September adjustment before acting again. Market pricing aligns with economist surveys showing the next likely step in December or January, with only modest odds attached to an October hike.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNo change 87%
25 bps increase 11%
50+ bps increase 1.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
$88,739 वॉल्यूम
$88,739 वॉल्यूम
29 अक्टू, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
87%
25 bps increase
11%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 87%
25 bps increase 11%
50+ bps increase 1.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
$88,739 वॉल्यूम
$88,739 वॉल्यूम
29 अक्टू, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,895 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 bps decrease
$7,612 वॉल्यूम
1%
No change
$33,307 वॉल्यूम
87%
25 bps increase
$33,201 वॉल्यूम
11%
50+ bps increase
$10,723 वॉल्यूम
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting because the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 18 decision, leaving limited room for immediate follow-through absent fresh data surprises. Recent BOJ board comments, including warnings that underlying inflation is approaching 2% while financial conditions remain accommodative, reinforce a gradual, data-dependent path rather than back-to-back moves. Persistent yen weakness, energy-price pressures from Middle East developments, and above-target CPI readings support further normalization, yet growth forecasts remain moderate and policymakers have signaled they will assess the impact of the September adjustment before acting again. Market pricing aligns with economist surveys showing the next likely step in December or January, with only modest odds attached to an October hike.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$88,739समाप्ति तिथि
30 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting because the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 18 decision, leaving limited room for immediate follow-through absent fresh data surprises. Recent BOJ board comments, including warnings that underlying inflation is approaching 2% while financial conditions remain accommodative, reinforce a gradual, data-dependent path rather than back-to-back moves. Persistent yen weakness, energy-price pressures from Middle East developments, and above-target CPI readings support further normalization, yet growth forecasts remain moderate and policymakers have signaled they will assess the impact of the September adjustment before acting again. Market pricing aligns with economist surveys showing the next likely step in December or January, with only modest odds attached to an October hike.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$88,739समाप्ति तिथि
30 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting because the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 18 decision, leaving limited room for immediate follow-through absent fresh data surprises. Recent BOJ board comments, including warnings that underlying inflation is approaching 2% while financial conditions remain accommodative, reinforce a gradual, data-dependent path rather than back-to-back moves. Persistent yen weakness, energy-price pressures from Middle East developments, and above-target CPI readings support further normalization, yet growth forecasts remain moderate and policymakers have signaled they will assess the impact of the September adjustment before acting again. Market pricing aligns with economist surveys showing the next likely step in December or January, with only modest odds attached to an October hike.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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