The Bank of Israel is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate at 3.25 percent on October 21 after four 25-basis-point cuts earlier in 2026. Contained inflation near 1.5 percent, well inside the 1–3 percent target, combined with moderating wage growth and a recovering economy, has reduced the urgency for further easing. Fiscal and policy uncertainty ahead of elections, plus the approach toward analysts’ perceived terminal rate around 3 percent, has shifted market consensus toward a pause. A September CPI release or the Bank’s updated staff forecast could still prompt a late reassessment if inflation surprises higher or growth signals weaken markedly.