Recent economic data and Bank of Canada communications have positioned a hold at the current 2.25% policy rate as the dominant outcome for the October 28, 2026 decision, with market-implied odds reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. July’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted resilient second-quarter GDP growth around 2.5%, a soft labor market with unemployment steady near 6.5%, and headline CPI elevated to 3.2% primarily from oil-price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core measures remain anchored near 2%. The Bank has signaled it will look through transitory energy effects and expects inflation to ease toward target by early 2027, reducing the case for immediate tightening or easing. Forward curves and analyst forecasts show limited pricing for a 25-basis-point hike by year-end amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty, while downside surprises in growth or further oil-price moderation could still tilt odds modestly toward cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the October Monetary Policy Report will provide the next key inputs into these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 85.9%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 13.4%
25 बीपीएस की कटौती 2.4%
50+ बीपीएस की कमी 1.4%
$30,700 वॉल्यूम
$30,700 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
1%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
13%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
86%
25 बीपीएस की कटौती
2%
50+ बीपीएस की कमी
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 85.9%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 13.4%
25 बीपीएस की कटौती 2.4%
50+ बीपीएस की कमी 1.4%
$30,700 वॉल्यूम
$30,700 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
$2,708 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
$6,554 वॉल्यूम
13%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$14,170 वॉल्यूम
86%
25 बीपीएस की कटौती
$4,221 वॉल्यूम
2%
50+ बीपीएस की कमी
$3,047 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Recent economic data and Bank of Canada communications have positioned a hold at the current 2.25% policy rate as the dominant outcome for the October 28, 2026 decision, with market-implied odds reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. July’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted resilient second-quarter GDP growth around 2.5%, a soft labor market with unemployment steady near 6.5%, and headline CPI elevated to 3.2% primarily from oil-price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core measures remain anchored near 2%. The Bank has signaled it will look through transitory energy effects and expects inflation to ease toward target by early 2027, reducing the case for immediate tightening or easing. Forward curves and analyst forecasts show limited pricing for a 25-basis-point hike by year-end amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty, while downside surprises in growth or further oil-price moderation could still tilt odds modestly toward cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the October Monetary Policy Report will provide the next key inputs into these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$30,700समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Recent economic data and Bank of Canada communications have positioned a hold at the current 2.25% policy rate as the dominant outcome for the October 28, 2026 decision, with market-implied odds reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. July’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted resilient second-quarter GDP growth around 2.5%, a soft labor market with unemployment steady near 6.5%, and headline CPI elevated to 3.2% primarily from oil-price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core measures remain anchored near 2%. The Bank has signaled it will look through transitory energy effects and expects inflation to ease toward target by early 2027, reducing the case for immediate tightening or easing. Forward curves and analyst forecasts show limited pricing for a 25-basis-point hike by year-end amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty, while downside surprises in growth or further oil-price moderation could still tilt odds modestly toward cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the October Monetary Policy Report will provide the next key inputs into these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$30,700समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data and Bank of Canada communications have positioned a hold at the current 2.25% policy rate as the dominant outcome for the October 28, 2026 decision, with market-implied odds reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. July’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted resilient second-quarter GDP growth around 2.5%, a soft labor market with unemployment steady near 6.5%, and headline CPI elevated to 3.2% primarily from oil-price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core measures remain anchored near 2%. The Bank has signaled it will look through transitory energy effects and expects inflation to ease toward target by early 2027, reducing the case for immediate tightening or easing. Forward curves and analyst forecasts show limited pricing for a 25-basis-point hike by year-end amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty, while downside surprises in growth or further oil-price moderation could still tilt odds modestly toward cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the October Monetary Policy Report will provide the next key inputs into these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासंबंधित
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?
98%
क्या सितंबर 2026 की बैठक के बाद बैंक ऑफ मैक्सिको की ब्याज दरों में कोई बदलाव नहीं हुआ?
96%
हाँ
क्या नवंबर 2026 बैठक के बाद बैंक ऑफ मेक्सिको की ब्याज दरों में कोई बदलाव नहीं हुआ?
82%
हाँ
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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