**Elevated headline inflation near 3%, driven by persistent energy prices and tariff-related supply pressures, has shifted trader sentiment toward pricing a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada hike by the December 9 decision, with market-implied odds at 53.5% versus 43.5% for no change.** The overnight rate has remained at 2.25% through seven consecutive holds amid soft GDP growth, unemployment near 6.5%, and core inflation measures anchored close to the 2% target. Recent data and analyst revisions, including upward adjustments to year-end rate paths in bond markets and forecasts from firms like Vanguard, reflect these inflation risks, while economic slack and limited pass-through to broader prices cap the probability of larger moves. The October 28 Monetary Policy Report will provide updated projections ahead of the final 2026 meeting.