Recent OpenAI status incidents have shaped trader consensus around the 73% implied probability of another Codex outage before year-end. A 56-minute full outage on September 25 disrupted Codex Web, API, CLI, and VS Code extension access due to an internal issue, followed days later by elevated errors across Codex and related services on September 29. These events, plus earlier 2026 reports of capacity errors and limit resets, highlight scaling challenges for the large language model powering coding workflows. Traders weigh OpenAI’s rapid feature releases and growing enterprise usage against recurring infrastructure vulnerabilities, with resolution thresholds tied to confirmed service disruptions rather than user-side limits.