The competitive Alaska U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, alongside minor candidates Dan J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes, centers trader attention on first-round turnout under ranked-choice voting on November 3. High PAC spending exceeding $35 million, national focus on Senate balance, and Peltola’s strong primary performance of 49.5 percent versus Sullivan’s 41.4 percent among 166,000 votes have elevated interest. Without a presidential race on the ballot, analysts expect participation above the August primary but below 2024 general levels among roughly 602,000 registered voters. Key variables include Republican efforts to consolidate rankings behind Sullivan, Peltola’s appeal to independents and crossover voters, and any late mobilization or weather impacts that could push totals toward or above 320,000.