**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 1 जुलाई, 2 जुलाई, रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
2026 1 जुलाई, 2 जुलाई, रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
सबसे गर्म 100.0%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म <1%
तीसरी सबसे गर्म <1%
चौथा या उससे कम <1%
$181,149 वॉल्यूम
$181,149 वॉल्यूम
सबसे गर्म
हाँ
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
नहीं
तीसरी सबसे गर्म
नहीं
चौथा या उससे कम
नहीं
सबसे गर्म 100.0%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म <1%
तीसरी सबसे गर्म <1%
चौथा या उससे कम <1%
$181,149 वॉल्यूम
$181,149 वॉल्यूम
सबसे गर्म
हाँ
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
नहीं
तीसरी सबसे गर्म
नहीं
चौथा या उससे कम
नहीं
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: हाँ
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: हाँ
**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न