**Ongoing Houthi-Saudi military exchanges along Yemen’s Red Sea coast continue to suppress but not eliminate commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.** As of early October 2026, IMF PortWatch data show roughly 9 tankers and about 30 vessels per day transiting—down 26% from earlier 2025–2026 averages—with some days recording as few as three tankers amid elevated attack risk. Major container lines have partially resumed Suez routings, cutting voyage times by up to 11 days versus Cape of Good Hope diversions, yet many operators maintain risk premiums reflected in freight rates that remain sharply elevated on key Asia–Europe and Gulf lanes. Saudi crude loadings via Yanbu have risen as contingency flows, while ongoing territorial skirmishes and UN warnings about navigational hazards sustain uncertainty. Traders price a low implied probability of any zero-transit day through year-end, consistent with persistent but non-zero daily volumes despite the conflict. Key near-term catalysts include further Saudi coalition operations and carrier service adjustments.