France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrance 18.4%
Espagne 13.7%
Angleterre 12.8%
Argentine 11.8%
$2,664,204,246 Vol.
$2,664,204,246 Vol.
France
18%
Espagne
14%
Angleterre
13%
Argentine
12%
Portugal
7%
Brésil
7%
Allemagne
6%
Pays-Bas
4%
Norvège
3%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
Japon
2%
Mexique
2%
Belgique
2%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Croatie
1%
Uruguay
1%
Suède
1%
Turquie
<1%
Équateur
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Australie
<1%
Autriche
<1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Canada
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
France 18.4%
Espagne 13.7%
Angleterre 12.8%
Argentine 11.8%
$2,664,204,246 Vol.
$2,664,204,246 Vol.
France
18%
Espagne
14%
Angleterre
13%
Argentine
12%
Portugal
7%
Brésil
7%
Allemagne
6%
Pays-Bas
4%
Norvège
3%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
Japon
2%
Mexique
2%
Belgique
2%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Croatie
1%
Uruguay
1%
Suède
1%
Turquie
<1%
Équateur
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Australie
<1%
Autriche
<1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Canada
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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