The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces contained earlier protests without major defections, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion amid sanctions, inflation, and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions into August. No verified signs of imminent overthrow or widespread internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden escalation triggering mass defections or coordinated uprisings, though such outcomes remain improbable within the narrow resolution window given current military and factional dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ?
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ?
Oui
2% chance
$1,627,330 Vol.
$1,627,330 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
2% chance
$1,627,330 Vol.
$1,627,330 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces contained earlier protests without major defections, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion amid sanctions, inflation, and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions into August. No verified signs of imminent overthrow or widespread internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden escalation triggering mass defections or coordinated uprisings, though such outcomes remain improbable within the narrow resolution window given current military and factional dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,627,330Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces contained earlier protests without major defections, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion amid sanctions, inflation, and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions into August. No verified signs of imminent overthrow or widespread internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden escalation triggering mass defections or coordinated uprisings, though such outcomes remain improbable within the narrow resolution window given current military and factional dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,627,330Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces contained earlier protests without major defections, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion amid sanctions, inflation, and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions into August. No verified signs of imminent overthrow or widespread internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden escalation triggering mass defections or coordinated uprisings, though such outcomes remain improbable within the narrow resolution window given current military and factional dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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