Tesla's lack of applications for advanced California DMV driverless testing permits and CPUC authorization for paid autonomous passenger service remains the dominant factor behind the market's 82% implied probability of no robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only basic entry-level approvals requiring human safety drivers and has logged zero unsupervised autonomous test miles in the state, falling short of the data thresholds (such as proposed 50,000-mile requirements) needed to progress. While limited supervised FSD ride-hailing operates in parts of the Bay Area and expansions continue elsewhere, regulators have repeatedly confirmed no filings for true driverless deployment. With roughly four months left, the tight timeline for multi-stage permitting, safety data review, and potential rule finalization leaves little room for the necessary approvals.