GameStop’s rejected May 2026 unsolicited $55.5 billion cash-and-stock bid for eBay, coupled with the target’s explicit dismissal as “neither credible nor attractive,” underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that no acquisition occurs. The acquirer’s roughly $13 billion market capitalization and $5.4 billion cash position remain materially smaller than the proposed deal size, while eBay’s board has shown no openness to revised terms. Trader consensus also reflects GameStop’s pivot toward a potential commercial partnership leveraging its collectibles footprint rather than full ownership, alongside limited recent filings or regulatory signals of progress. A successful proxy contest, substantial new financing commitment, or shift in eBay’s stance could still alter the outcome before resolution.