The Burnham ministry formed in late July 2026 after Andy Burnham succeeded Keir Starmer as prime minister, following a leadership transition that produced a broad but potentially fragile cabinet spanning party factions. Traders assign the highest probability to “Other” because early exits in new administrations frequently involve lower-profile ministers or unexpected personal, procedural, or minor policy pressures rather than senior figures. John Healey’s position as chancellor places him under immediate economic scrutiny, while Miatta Fahnbulleh’s energy brief and Louise Haigh’s senior coordinating role could surface friction over net-zero timelines or internal coordination. Visible appointments such as Ed Miliband at the Foreign Office and Shabana Mahmood at the Home Office reflect policy emphasis that may generate early differences, yet the market pricing indicates no single individual has emerged as the clearest near-term risk. No cabinet departures have been confirmed since formation, leaving probabilities shaped by historical patterns of turnover in post-leadership reshuffles.