Trader consensus strongly favors Nasdaq at over 90% implied probability following multiple September 2026 reports that Anthropic selected the exchange for its planned IPO, which could value the Claude developer near $2 trillion. This aligns with Nasdaq's recent capture of major tech debuts, including SpaceX, and offers eligibility for the Nasdaq-100 index, a key draw for large AI listings amid competition with the NYSE. The market reflects verified preparations such as confidential S-1 filings, banker appointments, and improving operating metrics, though the prospectus highlights substantial losses and AI safety risks. Potential shifts could arise from further delays beyond a mid-November target or unexpected regulatory hurdles, despite the established momentum.