Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuels pays enverront des navires de guerre dans le détroit d'Ormuz d'ici le 31 août ?
Quels pays enverront des navires de guerre dans le détroit d'Ormuz d'ici le 31 août ?
$287,530 Vol.
31 août 2026
Royaume-Uni
Non
France
Non
États-Unis
Non
Pays-Bas
Non
Grèce
Non
Italie
Non
Allemagne
Non
Australie
Non
$287,530 Vol.
Royaume-Uni
$24,721 Vol.
Non
France
$59,383 Vol.
Non
États-Unis
$47,320 Vol.
Non
Pays-Bas
$46,952 Vol.
Non
Grèce
$5,798 Vol.
Non
Italie
$7,525 Vol.
Non
Allemagne
$93,225 Vol.
Non
Australie
$2,606 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$287,530Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$287,530Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les États-Unis enverront-ils des navires de guerre dans le détroit d'Ormuz d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?
33%
Oui
Au moins 50 navires traverseront-ils le détroit d'Ormuz un jour avant le 31 août 2026 ?
2%
Oui
Au moins 10 navires franchiront-ils le détroit d'Ormuz un jour quelconque avant le 30 septembre 2026 ?
56%
Oui
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