Google's recent Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash release on August 27, 2026, along with Veo 3.1 updates featuring scene extension, first/last-frame control, 4K upscaling, and native audio, has driven its 65.5% implied probability by topping multiple text-to-video arenas and demonstrating strong prompt adherence plus multimodal reasoning. These capabilities build on May 2026 I/O announcements integrating Gemini intelligence with generative video, giving Google an edge in production-ready tools over competitors. Other firms like ByteDance (Seedance), Alibaba (Wan), and KlingAI maintain competitive Elo scores in specific categories such as image-to-video or value, yet trail in overall benchmarks and ecosystem integration as of early September. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable capability gaps ahead of the October resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 66%
ByteDance 13%
Pixverse 4.5%
KlingAI 1.0%
$36,110 Vol.
$36,110 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
66%
ByteDance
13%
Pixverse
5%
KlingAI
1%
Tencent
<1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
<1%
Pika
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Pruna
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Runway
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Google 66%
ByteDance 13%
Pixverse 4.5%
KlingAI 1.0%
$36,110 Vol.
$36,110 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
$25,055 Vol.
66%
ByteDance
$4,217 Vol.
13%
Pixverse
$426 Vol.
5%
KlingAI
$578 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$456 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$718 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$459 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$438 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$385 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$341 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$508 Vol.
<1%
Kandinsky
$425 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$416 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$483 Vol.
<1%
Runway
$417 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$416 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$373 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash release on August 27, 2026, along with Veo 3.1 updates featuring scene extension, first/last-frame control, 4K upscaling, and native audio, has driven its 65.5% implied probability by topping multiple text-to-video arenas and demonstrating strong prompt adherence plus multimodal reasoning. These capabilities build on May 2026 I/O announcements integrating Gemini intelligence with generative video, giving Google an edge in production-ready tools over competitors. Other firms like ByteDance (Seedance), Alibaba (Wan), and KlingAI maintain competitive Elo scores in specific categories such as image-to-video or value, yet trail in overall benchmarks and ecosystem integration as of early September. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable capability gaps ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$36,110Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash release on August 27, 2026, along with Veo 3.1 updates featuring scene extension, first/last-frame control, 4K upscaling, and native audio, has driven its 65.5% implied probability by topping multiple text-to-video arenas and demonstrating strong prompt adherence plus multimodal reasoning. These capabilities build on May 2026 I/O announcements integrating Gemini intelligence with generative video, giving Google an edge in production-ready tools over competitors. Other firms like ByteDance (Seedance), Alibaba (Wan), and KlingAI maintain competitive Elo scores in specific categories such as image-to-video or value, yet trail in overall benchmarks and ecosystem integration as of early September. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable capability gaps ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$36,110Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Google's recent Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash release on August 27, 2026, along with Veo 3.1 updates featuring scene extension, first/last-frame control, 4K upscaling, and native audio, has driven its 65.5% implied probability by topping multiple text-to-video arenas and demonstrating strong prompt adherence plus multimodal reasoning. These capabilities build on May 2026 I/O announcements integrating Gemini intelligence with generative video, giving Google an edge in production-ready tools over competitors. Other firms like ByteDance (Seedance), Alibaba (Wan), and KlingAI maintain competitive Elo scores in specific categories such as image-to-video or value, yet trail in overall benchmarks and ecosystem integration as of early September. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable capability gaps ahead of the October resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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