Google’s May 19 I/O announcements, including Gemini 3.5 Flash general availability and Gemini Deep Think agentic reasoning tools, drove the near-certain market consensus that its models lead in mathematical reasoning at month-end. These updates highlighted demonstrated performance on expert-level open problems in mathematics and science, along with strong results on competition-style benchmarks that reward multi-step symbolic reasoning. Traders viewed Google’s integrated hardware-software ecosystem and rapid iteration cadence as decisive advantages over peers. A late-May release or benchmark breakthrough from another lab could still shift perceptions, though the current positioning reflects sustained momentum in verified capability demonstrations rather than unconfirmed claims.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
$521,241 Vol.
$521,241 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Anthropic
No
OpenAI
No
xAI
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
Yes
Alibaba
No
ByteDance
No
Moonshot
No
Z.ai
No
DeepSeek
No
Meta
No
Google 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
$521,241 Vol.
$521,241 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Anthropic
$174,830 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$82,982 Vol.
No
xAI
$17,367 Vol.
No
Baidu
$16,753 Vol.
No
Amazon
$3,116 Vol.
No
Mistral
$8,776 Vol.
No
Meituan
$2,909 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$1,512 Vol.
No
$116,612 Vol.
Yes
Alibaba
$28,506 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$12,243 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$15,273 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$14,046 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$13,422 Vol.
No
Meta
$12,892 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google’s May 19 I/O announcements, including Gemini 3.5 Flash general availability and Gemini Deep Think agentic reasoning tools, drove the near-certain market consensus that its models lead in mathematical reasoning at month-end. These updates highlighted demonstrated performance on expert-level open problems in mathematics and science, along with strong results on competition-style benchmarks that reward multi-step symbolic reasoning. Traders viewed Google’s integrated hardware-software ecosystem and rapid iteration cadence as decisive advantages over peers. A late-May release or benchmark breakthrough from another lab could still shift perceptions, though the current positioning reflects sustained momentum in verified capability demonstrations rather than unconfirmed claims.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$521,241Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google’s May 19 I/O announcements, including Gemini 3.5 Flash general availability and Gemini Deep Think agentic reasoning tools, drove the near-certain market consensus that its models lead in mathematical reasoning at month-end. These updates highlighted demonstrated performance on expert-level open problems in mathematics and science, along with strong results on competition-style benchmarks that reward multi-step symbolic reasoning. Traders viewed Google’s integrated hardware-software ecosystem and rapid iteration cadence as decisive advantages over peers. A late-May release or benchmark breakthrough from another lab could still shift perceptions, though the current positioning reflects sustained momentum in verified capability demonstrations rather than unconfirmed claims.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$521,241Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Google’s May 19 I/O announcements, including Gemini 3.5 Flash general availability and Gemini Deep Think agentic reasoning tools, drove the near-certain market consensus that its models lead in mathematical reasoning at month-end. These updates highlighted demonstrated performance on expert-level open problems in mathematics and science, along with strong results on competition-style benchmarks that reward multi-step symbolic reasoning. Traders viewed Google’s integrated hardware-software ecosystem and rapid iteration cadence as decisive advantages over peers. A late-May release or benchmark breakthrough from another lab could still shift perceptions, though the current positioning reflects sustained momentum in verified capability demonstrations rather than unconfirmed claims.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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