OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra has driven its commanding 72.9% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an Elo score near 1,800 shortly after its September 3 release. Community votes on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and tool use show it ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points, reflecting gains in iterative web development workflows that directly match the market’s resolution criteria. While Anthropic remains competitive at 20.5% and other labs trail far behind, the six-week window to end-October leaves room for potential new releases or leaderboard shifts that could narrow the gap. Traders appear to view OpenAI’s current edge in this specific coding benchmark as durable given the recency and magnitude of its lead.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpenAI 72.8%
Anthropic 22%
Alibaba 3.6%
Google 2.0%
$67,832 Vol.
$67,832 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
OpenAI
73%
Anthropic
22%
Alibaba
4%
2%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
Tencent
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Poolside
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI 72.8%
Anthropic 22%
Alibaba 3.6%
Google 2.0%
$67,832 Vol.
$67,832 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
OpenAI
$5,098 Vol.
73%
Anthropic
$49,800 Vol.
22%
Alibaba
$1,988 Vol.
4%
$1,628 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$1,701 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$806 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$780 Vol.
1%
Meta
$779 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$773 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$653 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$819 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$668 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$679 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$677 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$387 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$596 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra has driven its commanding 72.9% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an Elo score near 1,800 shortly after its September 3 release. Community votes on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and tool use show it ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points, reflecting gains in iterative web development workflows that directly match the market’s resolution criteria. While Anthropic remains competitive at 20.5% and other labs trail far behind, the six-week window to end-October leaves room for potential new releases or leaderboard shifts that could narrow the gap. Traders appear to view OpenAI’s current edge in this specific coding benchmark as durable given the recency and magnitude of its lead.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volume
$67,832Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra has driven its commanding 72.9% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an Elo score near 1,800 shortly after its September 3 release. Community votes on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and tool use show it ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points, reflecting gains in iterative web development workflows that directly match the market’s resolution criteria. While Anthropic remains competitive at 20.5% and other labs trail far behind, the six-week window to end-October leaves room for potential new releases or leaderboard shifts that could narrow the gap. Traders appear to view OpenAI’s current edge in this specific coding benchmark as durable given the recency and magnitude of its lead.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$67,832Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra has driven its commanding 72.9% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an Elo score near 1,800 shortly after its September 3 release. Community votes on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and tool use show it ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points, reflecting gains in iterative web development workflows that directly match the market’s resolution criteria. While Anthropic remains competitive at 20.5% and other labs trail far behind, the six-week window to end-October leaves room for potential new releases or leaderboard shifts that could narrow the gap. Traders appear to view OpenAI’s current edge in this specific coding benchmark as durable given the recency and magnitude of its lead.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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