**Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% market-implied probability** of topping LiveBench overall at end of October 2026, well ahead of OpenAI at 14% and minimal odds for other labs. This reflects Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases (June–September 2026), which have posted leading or near-leading scores on the June 2026 LiveBench snapshot and subsequent updates, particularly in reasoning, coding, and multi-category averages under high-effort configurations. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants remain competitive but trail slightly in the latest public aggregates, keeping trader focus on Anthropic’s edge. Chinese labs (Alibaba Qwen, DeepSeek, Moonshot) post strong open-weight results on select subtasks yet lag on the full contamination-resistant overall metric that favors frontier closed models. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, any new flagship releases, major fine-tunes, or LiveBench question refreshes could shift the narrow gap, but current verified benchmark momentum and release cadence underpin the strong Anthropic consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$20,631 Vol.
$20,631 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
75%
OpenAI
12%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$20,631 Vol.
$20,631 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$9,026 Vol.
75%
OpenAI
$2,945 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$443 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$435 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$492 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$386 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$465 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$498 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$471 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$445 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$433 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$481 Vol.
1%
Meta
$481 Vol.
1%
$411 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$494 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$492 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$445 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$425 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”**Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% market-implied probability** of topping LiveBench overall at end of October 2026, well ahead of OpenAI at 14% and minimal odds for other labs. This reflects Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases (June–September 2026), which have posted leading or near-leading scores on the June 2026 LiveBench snapshot and subsequent updates, particularly in reasoning, coding, and multi-category averages under high-effort configurations. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants remain competitive but trail slightly in the latest public aggregates, keeping trader focus on Anthropic’s edge. Chinese labs (Alibaba Qwen, DeepSeek, Moonshot) post strong open-weight results on select subtasks yet lag on the full contamination-resistant overall metric that favors frontier closed models. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, any new flagship releases, major fine-tunes, or LiveBench question refreshes could shift the narrow gap, but current verified benchmark momentum and release cadence underpin the strong Anthropic consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$20,631Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”**Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% market-implied probability** of topping LiveBench overall at end of October 2026, well ahead of OpenAI at 14% and minimal odds for other labs. This reflects Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases (June–September 2026), which have posted leading or near-leading scores on the June 2026 LiveBench snapshot and subsequent updates, particularly in reasoning, coding, and multi-category averages under high-effort configurations. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants remain competitive but trail slightly in the latest public aggregates, keeping trader focus on Anthropic’s edge. Chinese labs (Alibaba Qwen, DeepSeek, Moonshot) post strong open-weight results on select subtasks yet lag on the full contamination-resistant overall metric that favors frontier closed models. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, any new flagship releases, major fine-tunes, or LiveBench question refreshes could shift the narrow gap, but current verified benchmark momentum and release cadence underpin the strong Anthropic consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$20,631Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% market-implied probability** of topping LiveBench overall at end of October 2026, well ahead of OpenAI at 14% and minimal odds for other labs. This reflects Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases (June–September 2026), which have posted leading or near-leading scores on the June 2026 LiveBench snapshot and subsequent updates, particularly in reasoning, coding, and multi-category averages under high-effort configurations. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants remain competitive but trail slightly in the latest public aggregates, keeping trader focus on Anthropic’s edge. Chinese labs (Alibaba Qwen, DeepSeek, Moonshot) post strong open-weight results on select subtasks yet lag on the full contamination-resistant overall metric that favors frontier closed models. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, any new flagship releases, major fine-tunes, or LiveBench question refreshes could shift the narrow gap, but current verified benchmark momentum and release cadence underpin the strong Anthropic consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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