Traders view Anthropic as the frontrunner for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end of October, with its 64 percent implied probability reflecting recent large language model releases that have shown strong gains in advanced reasoning, symbolic manipulation, and multi-step problem solving. This edge stems from targeted training improvements and benchmark-specific optimizations that have widened its lead over OpenAI’s current offerings in third-party evaluations. Numerous placeholder companies at 50 percent highlight uncertainty around unreleased updates or new entrants, while Google’s low 2.3 percent odds indicate limited recent progress in this category. Key catalysts ahead include further model drops and any LiveBench methodology changes that could alter final rankings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 64%
OpenAI 36%
Google 2.5%
SpaceXAI <1%
$21,710 Vol.
$21,710 Vol.

Anthropic
64%

OpenAI
36%

3%

SpaceXAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

ByteDance
1%

Thinky
1%

MiniMax
1%

StepFun
1%

Microsoft
1%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
1%

Meta
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%
Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 36%
Google 2.5%
SpaceXAI <1%
$21,710 Vol.
$21,710 Vol.

Anthropic
64%

OpenAI
36%

3%

SpaceXAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

ByteDance
1%

Thinky
1%

MiniMax
1%

StepFun
1%

Microsoft
1%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
1%

Meta
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Traders view Anthropic as the frontrunner for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end of October, with its 64 percent implied probability reflecting recent large language model releases that have shown strong gains in advanced reasoning, symbolic manipulation, and multi-step problem solving. This edge stems from targeted training improvements and benchmark-specific optimizations that have widened its lead over OpenAI’s current offerings in third-party evaluations. Numerous placeholder companies at 50 percent highlight uncertainty around unreleased updates or new entrants, while Google’s low 2.3 percent odds indicate limited recent progress in this category. Key catalysts ahead include further model drops and any LiveBench methodology changes that could alter final rankings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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