Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, with strong gains on agentic coding tasks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds for leading LiveBench Coding by end of October. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in contamination-resistant evaluations of code generation and reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants despite the latter's overall benchmark edges in prior June 2026 LiveBench snapshots. Traders appear to factor in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning on practical coding metrics and expected model iterations before the next LiveBench refresh, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Z.ai reflect narrower leads or less recent specialized updates in this category.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 85%
OpenAI 5%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$18,015 Vol.
$18,015 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
85%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 5%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$18,015 Vol.
$18,015 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$6,398 Vol.
85%
OpenAI
$2,960 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$520 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$552 Vol.
<1%
$546 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$455 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$424 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$297 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, with strong gains on agentic coding tasks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds for leading LiveBench Coding by end of October. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in contamination-resistant evaluations of code generation and reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants despite the latter's overall benchmark edges in prior June 2026 LiveBench snapshots. Traders appear to factor in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning on practical coding metrics and expected model iterations before the next LiveBench refresh, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Z.ai reflect narrower leads or less recent specialized updates in this category.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$18,015Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, with strong gains on agentic coding tasks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds for leading LiveBench Coding by end of October. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in contamination-resistant evaluations of code generation and reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants despite the latter's overall benchmark edges in prior June 2026 LiveBench snapshots. Traders appear to factor in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning on practical coding metrics and expected model iterations before the next LiveBench refresh, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Z.ai reflect narrower leads or less recent specialized updates in this category.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$18,015Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, with strong gains on agentic coding tasks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds for leading LiveBench Coding by end of October. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in contamination-resistant evaluations of code generation and reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants despite the latter's overall benchmark edges in prior June 2026 LiveBench snapshots. Traders appear to factor in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning on practical coding metrics and expected model iterations before the next LiveBench refresh, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or Z.ai reflect narrower leads or less recent specialized updates in this category.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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