Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, 2026, has driven the 74% implied probability, as these models posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while excelling in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI 3. Traders see the combination of frontier performance, cost-efficient Opus 5 tier released in July, and consistent safety-focused releases as giving Anthropic a durable edge through October. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 family, despite strong agentic and multimodal results, trail on composite intelligence metrics, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on verified capability demonstrations. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term trajectories ahead of the October resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 74%
OpenAI 17.0%
Google 7.3%
Meta 1.1%
$209,914 Vol.
$209,914 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
74%
OpenAI
17%
7%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 74%
OpenAI 17.0%
Google 7.3%
Meta 1.1%
$209,914 Vol.
$209,914 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$36,152 Vol.
74%
OpenAI
$20,098 Vol.
17%
$17,825 Vol.
7%
Meta
$19,108 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$15,066 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$16,286 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$12,405 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$13,648 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$15,845 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$10,748 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$10,158 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, 2026, has driven the 74% implied probability, as these models posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while excelling in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI 3. Traders see the combination of frontier performance, cost-efficient Opus 5 tier released in July, and consistent safety-focused releases as giving Anthropic a durable edge through October. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 family, despite strong agentic and multimodal results, trail on composite intelligence metrics, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on verified capability demonstrations. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term trajectories ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$209,914Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, 2026, has driven the 74% implied probability, as these models posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while excelling in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI 3. Traders see the combination of frontier performance, cost-efficient Opus 5 tier released in July, and consistent safety-focused releases as giving Anthropic a durable edge through October. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 family, despite strong agentic and multimodal results, trail on composite intelligence metrics, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on verified capability demonstrations. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term trajectories ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$209,914Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, 2026, has driven the 74% implied probability, as these models posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while excelling in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI 3. Traders see the combination of frontier performance, cost-efficient Opus 5 tier released in July, and consistent safety-focused releases as giving Anthropic a durable edge through October. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 family, despite strong agentic and multimodal results, trail on composite intelligence metrics, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on verified capability demonstrations. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term trajectories ahead of the October resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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