Anthropic's 95.9% implied probability reflects its sustained edge in large language model performance, driven by recent official releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning, safety alignment, and the specified style control capabilities that distinguish it from competitors. Traders view this as a skin-in-the-game consensus backed by capital, given the narrow window to end of August and limited time for rivals to close gaps through new model drops or fine-tuning. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at low single-digit odds due to slower recent progress on comparable features. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen capability leap from another lab or delays in Anthropic's planned updates, though historical release patterns suggest such reversals remain low-probability events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 95.8%
OpenAI 2.3%
Google 1.9%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$22,848 Vol.
$22,848 Vol.
31 août 2026
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
2%
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Bytedance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 95.8%
OpenAI 2.3%
Google 1.9%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$22,848 Vol.
$22,848 Vol.
31 août 2026
Anthropic
$4,791 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$2,700 Vol.
2%
$2,019 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$1,197 Vol.
1%
Meta
$1,040 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$607 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,152 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$721 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$717 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$689 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,041 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$696 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$908 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$772 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's 95.9% implied probability reflects its sustained edge in large language model performance, driven by recent official releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning, safety alignment, and the specified style control capabilities that distinguish it from competitors. Traders view this as a skin-in-the-game consensus backed by capital, given the narrow window to end of August and limited time for rivals to close gaps through new model drops or fine-tuning. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at low single-digit odds due to slower recent progress on comparable features. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen capability leap from another lab or delays in Anthropic's planned updates, though historical release patterns suggest such reversals remain low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$22,848Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's 95.9% implied probability reflects its sustained edge in large language model performance, driven by recent official releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning, safety alignment, and the specified style control capabilities that distinguish it from competitors. Traders view this as a skin-in-the-game consensus backed by capital, given the narrow window to end of August and limited time for rivals to close gaps through new model drops or fine-tuning. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at low single-digit odds due to slower recent progress on comparable features. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen capability leap from another lab or delays in Anthropic's planned updates, though historical release patterns suggest such reversals remain low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$22,848Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's 95.9% implied probability reflects its sustained edge in large language model performance, driven by recent official releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning, safety alignment, and the specified style control capabilities that distinguish it from competitors. Traders view this as a skin-in-the-game consensus backed by capital, given the narrow window to end of August and limited time for rivals to close gaps through new model drops or fine-tuning. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at low single-digit odds due to slower recent progress on comparable features. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen capability leap from another lab or delays in Anthropic's planned updates, though historical release patterns suggest such reversals remain low-probability events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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