Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires May 15, driving trader consensus to 93.5% odds for his departure in the May 15–22 window, as he confirmed on April 29 he will step aside from the chairmanship while remaining a board governor through 2028. President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh faces a Senate confirmation vote today, May 11, potentially enabling a swift transition and lower-rate policy shift. Ongoing pressure from Trump allies like Scott Bessent, who decry Powell as a potential "shadow chair," reinforces expectations of an on-schedule exit. Realistic challenges include Senate delays on Warsh, legal hurdles to any early removal, or Powell's unanticipated full resignation beforehand.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWhen will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 93.5%
May 30–June 5 1.4%
May 23–29 <1%
After July 3 <1%
$79,998 Vol.
$79,998 Vol.
Before May 15
<1%
May 15–22
93%
May 23–29
1%
May 30–June 5
1%
June 6–12
<1%
June 13–19
<1%
June 20–26
<1%
June 27–July 3
<1%
After July 3
1%
May 15–22 93.5%
May 30–June 5 1.4%
May 23–29 <1%
After July 3 <1%
$79,998 Vol.
$79,998 Vol.
Before May 15
<1%
May 15–22
93%
May 23–29
1%
May 30–June 5
1%
June 6–12
<1%
June 13–19
<1%
June 20–26
<1%
June 27–July 3
<1%
After July 3
1%
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires May 15, driving trader consensus to 93.5% odds for his departure in the May 15–22 window, as he confirmed on April 29 he will step aside from the chairmanship while remaining a board governor through 2028. President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh faces a Senate confirmation vote today, May 11, potentially enabling a swift transition and lower-rate policy shift. Ongoing pressure from Trump allies like Scott Bessent, who decry Powell as a potential "shadow chair," reinforces expectations of an on-schedule exit. Realistic challenges include Senate delays on Warsh, legal hurdles to any early removal, or Powell's unanticipated full resignation beforehand.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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