Ongoing US sanctions and a maritime blockade have sharply curtailed Iranian oil exports to near zero in recent months, creating acute foreign-exchange shortages that have driven the rial to record lows near 2.6–2.7 million per dollar in October amid inflation exceeding 70 percent. Central bank interventions supplying billions in foreign currency have reduced short-term volatility and supported the currency around current levels, yet persistent revenue constraints from sanctions and limited alternative trade routes keep depreciation risks elevated through December. Trader consensus across the 2.5–3.5 million range reflects uncertainty over whether diplomatic talks after the November midterms or further enforcement actions will alter the supply outlook before year-end.