The deadline for a formal US-China tariff agreement passed on May 31 without a publicly announced mutual accord on duties, driving trader consensus toward near-certainty on the negative outcome. Mid-May summit discussions between the US and Chinese leaders produced commitments on agricultural purchases and the creation of bilateral boards to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on non-strategic goods, alongside limited steps such as public comment periods on targeted relief, yet these measures fell short of the market’s resolution criteria for a comprehensive deal. Ongoing trade truce extensions and diplomatic stabilization efforts reflect continued engagement but have not accelerated to the level of a binding tariff pact within the window. Late announcements before the cutoff or rapid follow-through on board frameworks represent the narrow paths that could have shifted probabilities, though none materialized to alter the established positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
$145,963 Vol.
$145,963 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$145,963 Vol.
$145,963 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The deadline for a formal US-China tariff agreement passed on May 31 without a publicly announced mutual accord on duties, driving trader consensus toward near-certainty on the negative outcome. Mid-May summit discussions between the US and Chinese leaders produced commitments on agricultural purchases and the creation of bilateral boards to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on non-strategic goods, alongside limited steps such as public comment periods on targeted relief, yet these measures fell short of the market’s resolution criteria for a comprehensive deal. Ongoing trade truce extensions and diplomatic stabilization efforts reflect continued engagement but have not accelerated to the level of a binding tariff pact within the window. Late announcements before the cutoff or rapid follow-through on board frameworks represent the narrow paths that could have shifted probabilities, though none materialized to alter the established positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$145,963Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The deadline for a formal US-China tariff agreement passed on May 31 without a publicly announced mutual accord on duties, driving trader consensus toward near-certainty on the negative outcome. Mid-May summit discussions between the US and Chinese leaders produced commitments on agricultural purchases and the creation of bilateral boards to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on non-strategic goods, alongside limited steps such as public comment periods on targeted relief, yet these measures fell short of the market’s resolution criteria for a comprehensive deal. Ongoing trade truce extensions and diplomatic stabilization efforts reflect continued engagement but have not accelerated to the level of a binding tariff pact within the window. Late announcements before the cutoff or rapid follow-through on board frameworks represent the narrow paths that could have shifted probabilities, though none materialized to alter the established positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$145,963Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The deadline for a formal US-China tariff agreement passed on May 31 without a publicly announced mutual accord on duties, driving trader consensus toward near-certainty on the negative outcome. Mid-May summit discussions between the US and Chinese leaders produced commitments on agricultural purchases and the creation of bilateral boards to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on non-strategic goods, alongside limited steps such as public comment periods on targeted relief, yet these measures fell short of the market’s resolution criteria for a comprehensive deal. Ongoing trade truce extensions and diplomatic stabilization efforts reflect continued engagement but have not accelerated to the level of a binding tariff pact within the window. Late announcements before the cutoff or rapid follow-through on board frameworks represent the narrow paths that could have shifted probabilities, though none materialized to alter the established positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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