Strong recent nowcasts and labor-market data have positioned the ≥3.0% and 2.5–3.0% buckets as the leading outcomes for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with combined market-implied odds near 62%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.7% as of September 3, supported by upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and private investment, while median nowcasts from the St. Louis and New York Feds cluster around 2.3–2.4%. August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1% and signaling sustained demand, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Elevated inflation readings, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year, have kept the Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and tempered expectations for near-term easing. The advance Q3 GDP report, due in late October, remains the key catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≥3.0% 39%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$25,008 Vol.
$25,008 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
10%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
39%
≥3.0% 39%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$25,008 Vol.
$25,008 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$896 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$650 Vol.
6%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Vol.
10%
2.0–2.5%
$1,885 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,391 Vol.
23%
≥3.0%
$16,910 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong recent nowcasts and labor-market data have positioned the ≥3.0% and 2.5–3.0% buckets as the leading outcomes for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with combined market-implied odds near 62%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.7% as of September 3, supported by upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and private investment, while median nowcasts from the St. Louis and New York Feds cluster around 2.3–2.4%. August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1% and signaling sustained demand, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Elevated inflation readings, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year, have kept the Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and tempered expectations for near-term easing. The advance Q3 GDP report, due in late October, remains the key catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$25,008Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong recent nowcasts and labor-market data have positioned the ≥3.0% and 2.5–3.0% buckets as the leading outcomes for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with combined market-implied odds near 62%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.7% as of September 3, supported by upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and private investment, while median nowcasts from the St. Louis and New York Feds cluster around 2.3–2.4%. August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1% and signaling sustained demand, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Elevated inflation readings, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year, have kept the Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and tempered expectations for near-term easing. The advance Q3 GDP report, due in late October, remains the key catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$25,008Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Strong recent nowcasts and labor-market data have positioned the ≥3.0% and 2.5–3.0% buckets as the leading outcomes for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with combined market-implied odds near 62%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.7% as of September 3, supported by upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and private investment, while median nowcasts from the St. Louis and New York Feds cluster around 2.3–2.4%. August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1% and signaling sustained demand, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Elevated inflation readings, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year, have kept the Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and tempered expectations for near-term easing. The advance Q3 GDP report, due in late October, remains the key catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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