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icon for US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

icon for US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

35% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
35% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent provisional CDC data showing a continued 1% drop in U.S. births and general fertility rate for 2025—to a record low of 53.1 per 1,000 women ages 15–44—has anchored trader sentiment against an uptick in Q1 2026. This extends a two-decade slide that accelerated after the 2007 peak, with teenage rates plunging to historic lows and limited offsets from older mothers amid shifting family norms and economic pressures. CBO projections point to further softening in 2026, while early-year birth trends reinforce the downward momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include additional CDC vital statistics releases that could clarify whether any seasonal rebound materializes before the December resolution.

The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Volume
$520
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent provisional CDC data showing a continued 1% drop in U.S. births and general fertility rate for 2025—to a record low of 53.1 per 1,000 women ages 15–44—has anchored trader sentiment against an uptick in Q1 2026. This extends a two-decade slide that accelerated after the 2007 peak, with teenage rates plunging to historic lows and limited offsets from older mothers amid shifting family norms and economic pressures. CBO projections point to further softening in 2026, while early-year birth trends reinforce the downward momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include additional CDC vital statistics releases that could clarify whether any seasonal rebound materializes before the December resolution.

The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Volume
$520
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.

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Questions fréquentes

« US fertility rate up in Q1 2026? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 35% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 35¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 35% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« US fertility rate up in Q1 2026? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 27, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « US fertility rate up in Q1 2026? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « US fertility rate up in Q1 2026? » est de 35% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 35% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « US fertility rate up in Q1 2026? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.