**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.** Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance du PIB du Royaume-Uni au T3 2026 (QoQ) ?
Croissance du PIB du Royaume-Uni au T3 2026 (QoQ) ?
0,2–0,3 % 42%
0,4–0,5 % 26%
0,0–0,1 % 22%
0,6–0,7 % 5.8%
$19,102 Vol.
$19,102 Vol.
11 nov. 2026
Négatif
6%
0,0–0,1 %
22%
0,2–0,3 %
42%
0,4–0,5 %
26%
0,6–0,7 %
6%
0,8–0,9 %
<1%
1,0 %+
2%
0,2–0,3 % 42%
0,4–0,5 % 26%
0,0–0,1 % 22%
0,6–0,7 % 5.8%
$19,102 Vol.
$19,102 Vol.
11 nov. 2026
Négatif
$4,029 Vol.
6%
0,0–0,1 %
$5,965 Vol.
22%
0,2–0,3 %
$6,709 Vol.
42%
0,4–0,5 %
$1,691 Vol.
26%
0,6–0,7 %
$270 Vol.
6%
0,8–0,9 %
$201 Vol.
<1%
1,0 %+
$237 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.**
Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$19,102Date de fin
12 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.**
Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$19,102Date de fin
12 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.** Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes