US-Turkey talks on rejoining the F-35 program remain stalled primarily by Ankara’s possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which triggered Turkey’s 2019 expulsion and triggers mandatory CAATSA certification barriers under the 2020 NDAA. The State Department reaffirmed in a July 2026 letter to Congress that Turkey must relinquish the system, provide non-reacquisition assurances, and meet statutory conditions before any aircraft transfer or program return can occur. President Trump signaled willingness in July 2026 to lift sanctions and consider limited sales, yet no breakthrough has materialized amid Congressional opposition and lobbying from Greece and other allies. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, potential S-400 workarounds, and domestic Turkish alternatives like the KAAN fighter continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$40,793 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre 2026
11%
30 juin 2027
32%
$40,793 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$29,486 Vol.
11%
30 juin 2027
$11,307 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey talks on rejoining the F-35 program remain stalled primarily by Ankara’s possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which triggered Turkey’s 2019 expulsion and triggers mandatory CAATSA certification barriers under the 2020 NDAA. The State Department reaffirmed in a July 2026 letter to Congress that Turkey must relinquish the system, provide non-reacquisition assurances, and meet statutory conditions before any aircraft transfer or program return can occur. President Trump signaled willingness in July 2026 to lift sanctions and consider limited sales, yet no breakthrough has materialized amid Congressional opposition and lobbying from Greece and other allies. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, potential S-400 workarounds, and domestic Turkish alternatives like the KAAN fighter continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$40,793Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey talks on rejoining the F-35 program remain stalled primarily by Ankara’s possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which triggered Turkey’s 2019 expulsion and triggers mandatory CAATSA certification barriers under the 2020 NDAA. The State Department reaffirmed in a July 2026 letter to Congress that Turkey must relinquish the system, provide non-reacquisition assurances, and meet statutory conditions before any aircraft transfer or program return can occur. President Trump signaled willingness in July 2026 to lift sanctions and consider limited sales, yet no breakthrough has materialized amid Congressional opposition and lobbying from Greece and other allies. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, potential S-400 workarounds, and domestic Turkish alternatives like the KAAN fighter continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$40,793Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Turkey talks on rejoining the F-35 program remain stalled primarily by Ankara’s possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which triggered Turkey’s 2019 expulsion and triggers mandatory CAATSA certification barriers under the 2020 NDAA. The State Department reaffirmed in a July 2026 letter to Congress that Turkey must relinquish the system, provide non-reacquisition assurances, and meet statutory conditions before any aircraft transfer or program return can occur. President Trump signaled willingness in July 2026 to lift sanctions and consider limited sales, yet no breakthrough has materialized amid Congressional opposition and lobbying from Greece and other allies. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, potential S-400 workarounds, and domestic Turkish alternatives like the KAAN fighter continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes